-- Josh Weinfuss. Realistic expectation: Getting to 10 wins. They're ranked fourth in scoring defense, and if the Mike White-led offense can be middle-of-the-road, the Jets should be fine because they're 6-0 when scoring at least 18 points. That doesnt mean itll be easy for the Rams to win the NFC again, but ESPNs predictive model likes their odds. It's realistic even though the Bills are not looking as sharp since the team's bye. The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse -- in points -- that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on . An established power rises to the top spot for the first time this season in Dan Hanzus' Power Rankings. But enough about the math, let's talk football. Realistic expectation: Representing the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. The rating itself indicates approximately how much better or worse in points that team is predicted to be, relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field. The long answer is it depends on the quarterback. The Dolphins went up and down the field on the defense all afternoon, giving their punter the day off in a 39-17 blowout at Hard Rock Stadium. More ESPN+ content . That doesn't mean they can't. Walker got off the mat after the embarrassment of Week 9s blowout loss to the Bengals, but he wont be able to build off the gains we saw in last Thursdays win over the Falcons. The Patriots are followed by the Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers in the top five. There is no reason to fear any of the heavy hitters in the NFC. Lamar Jackson -- as always -- remains the centerpiece of everything Baltimore does on offense, with a league-leading average of 7.4 yards per attempt on a team-leading 86 carries. We're 2-7, not the results we're looking for, but at the same time, we've lost six one-score games with the ball and a chance to win at the end." The latest NFL Standings by Division, Conference and League The official source for NFL news, video highlights, fantasy football, game-day coverage, schedules, stats, scores and more. The Bucs face three solid teams that the Saints -- and the rest of the division -- don't see: the Chiefs, Packers and Cowboys. It was a warning not to write off the Packers, words backed up by actions in a 31-28 overtime win over the Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Winning another Super Bowl is also a realistic goal with QB Patrick Mahomes having an MVP-like season. Bengals were 8th and 49ers were 12th. Tom Brady called Sundays 21-16 win over the Seahawks --the first NFL game ever played in Germany -- one of the best experiences of his 23-year career. All things are pointing toward the Titans winning the division, although they have two games against the Jaguars on the horizon. But according to the projections, the Chiefs are again the best team in the AFC West. This had to be a tremendously annoying game for Reich to be watching from his couch. Much of the ground-game success can be traced back to a thriving offensive line that keeps getting better. The Eagles lost because they couldn't keep the Commanders' offense off the field: Washington ran 34 more plays than Philly and possessed the ball for more than 40 minutes of game time. It's shaping up to be a three-team race between them, the Commanders and the Seahawks. -- Paul Gutierrez. You have to go back to the salad days of Dan Marino to find a Dolphins offense that felt this dangerous. Realistic expectation: Getting to six victories. As a result, the 49ers are way down in the FPI rankings at No. While the scrappy Seahawks have clawed their way closer to the top of Dan Hanzus' NFL Power Rankings, the disappointing Raiders are in free fall. George Kittle was targeted just twice (one catch) and Deebo Samuel had just two receptions on six looks. 28 overall and as the No. The fourth-round rookie is averaging 71 yards a game, but recently defenses have centered their game plan on stopping him. If he were to not be starting quarterback by Year 2, that would signify a major failure (not that focusing on sunk costs makes sense). Irrelevant' to rookie starting QB: The twists and turns of Brock Purdy's journey to the 49ers. Skip to content Player Rankings. In fact, they are the highest-rated team that FPI believes has a better chance to win the Super Bowl (6%) than their odds at Caesars Sportsbook (18-1) indicate. Repeating as Super Bowl champions is difficult to do, but the Los Angeles Rams have a decent shot to do exactly that in 2022. Winning the division is in jeopardy after slipping one game below .500 and holding just a half-game lead over the Falcons. NFL Football Power Index 2022. -- Brady Henderson. Are the Lions putting it together? The Lions might not finish at .500 this year, but they do have an opportunity to double their win total from 3-13-1 in 2021 to at least six wins this season, which is a big improvement as they continue to take steps toward their rebuild. Realistic expectation: Getting to the Super Bowl. -- Alaina Getzenberg. Still, one controversial penalty shouldn't obscure an incredible prime-time performance by the Commanders, who knocked off the previously undefeated Eagles and put themselves right in the thick of the NFC playoff race. McCoy is a nice fallback option, but Kyler Murray (hamstring) will need to be back on the field for the Cards to have a chance in a key divisional matchup against the 49ers on Monday night in Mexico City. Baltimore plays five straight games against teams with losing records before playing at the Bengals in the regular-season finale. There is no question about it that the 2021 Detroit Lions were not a very good football team as they finished with a 3-13-1 record, which was the second-worst record in the entire NFL. The team also owns the AFC's best net touchdown differential (plus-13). Why is New Orleans so close? 2022 Season; Draft Rankings; 1 - 40 of 40 . Derek Carr's emotional press conference on Sunday told the story of a season that's been brutally frustrating for everyone involved. It should help that four of their final six are at Lumen Field. Realistic expectation: Staying in the NFC South mix. That goal has largely been derailed because of an overwhelming number of injuries that have resulted in edge rusher Joey Bosa, cornerback J.C. Jackson, left tackle Rashawn Slater and defensive lineman Austin Johnson being placed on injured reserve. ESPN's FPI rankings were developed in 2013 as a way to measure the overall strength of each team and to predict . -- Michael Rothstein. Realistic expectation: Making the playoffs. Our FPI also now includes predictive unit ratings that can be broken out into run and pass games (e.g. Their Week 15 showdown could end up deciding the division, although Miami does have two more division games in Weeks 16 and 17. It could be a delicate situation depending on what Rodgers wants to do next season, but his injuries (to his thumb and ribs) make it a little easier to sit him. Rookie center Tyler Linderbaum was yet another draft hit by the organization, while Ronnie Stanley's return to health has brought stability to the blind side. Although they got off to a rough 1-6 start, lately the Lions have been among the hottest teams in the league, winning three of their past four games. The Cowboys had a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter and the opportunity to step on the throat of the Packers in their own building. Those were the words of Raiders owner Mark Davis, per ESPN, when asked about the job security of first-year coach Josh McDaniels in the wake of an embarrassing loss to the chaos-drenched Colts at Allegiant Stadium. Ryan Clark weighs in on Tom Brady and Buccaneers' underwhelming performance this season. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. At 9-2, the Chiefs have the best record in the conference and a schedule conducive to holding on to their lead over the rest of the field. Fresno Drag Festival met with pushback and protest, Two die following collision with freight truck in Fresno Co., CHP says, Scuba diver's close call caught on camera. The 31-30 victory over the Bears -- the Lions second straight after a five-game skid -- was especially encouraging because it was the struggling defense that really stepped up: Jeff Okudah pulled Detroit even with a dramatic pick-six in the fourth quarter, and a host of defenders swarmed a red-hot Justin Fields for the decisive sack on fourth down in the final minutes. Cincinnati ranks 16th in FPI rating and has the 18th-best chance to win the Super Bowl at 3%. We didnt quite get that in Sunday nights narrow win over the injury-ravaged Chargers. Tampa Bay converted 10 of 15 third downs against the Seahawks and scored touchdowns on both of their trips to the red zone. Book the postseason. The Cardinals didnt commit a turnover and generally looked like a more functional operation despite the perfunctory penalty avalanche (10 more infractions worth 67 yards). NFL Week 12 takeaways: Steelers hang on, Raiders walk it off, Packers fall short in Philly, The Broncos just hit rock bottom: How Russell Wilson has declined, who's to blame and what's next. Colt McCoy proves his value at some point in every season. It sucks this way even more. 2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings! The goal has always been -- whether anyone connected to the Browns has said so or not (they haven't) -- to get to Deshaun Watson's Week 13 return in playoff contention. For the preseason version that we discuss here, the most notable change was moving away from gambling lines as an input. Depth charts for every team After Saturday's loss to SEC East division rival Kentucky Wildcats, Florida football has dropped 13 spots in ESPN's latest FPI rankings. Expecting to make the AFC playoffs might be too much for a team with a record of 4-7. The return of T.J. Watt means the Steelers wont be getting pushed around anymore. The model still isn't all the way in on quarterback Joe Burrow. Therefore, those ratings and simulations determine the Jets' Super Bowl chances after the 4-0 start. More NFL coverage . Indeed, there is not. -- Eric Woodyard. It wasn't the prettiest performance, but the Chiefs had plenty of margin for error against the Jaguars at Arrowhead. The defense remains a solid unit, and the offense is one of the best in the league. The fourth-quarter charge led by Geno Smith was spirited, but the trip to Munich was ultimately an empty one for the previously soaring Seahawks. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. The veteran backup QB is as consistent as Christmas, and we saw it again in Sundays 27-17 win over the Rams in Los Angeles. 2022 NFL season, Week 10: What We Learned from Sunday's games, McCarthy to chuck his headset into the turf, the best experiences of his 23-year career, knocked off the previously undefeated Eagles. After last year's 12-5 season ended unceremoniously in a wild-card loss to the 49ers -- who could forget the spike that wasn't? Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were both again sidelined by injuries, and Los Angeles also played without either of its starting tackles on the offensive line. Eagles (10-1; No. Here are eight takeaways from the 2022 ratings -- and a detailed explanation of changes to the model -- starting with the league's best team. And that's our best guess for Lance at this point. His connection with Christian Kirk -- 105 yards, two touchdowns -- is one of the positive subplots of a developmental season. We previously used win totals paired with the schedule as a significant driver of preseason ratings, but betting markets are no longer in the model. This is a 23-year-old who has put the league on notice. Unfortunately, that felt like the highlight of the game for the underdog Jags, who showed they weren't ready to hang with one of the elite teams in football. Philly's first loss of the season included four turnovers and a crushing late-hit penalty against Brandon Graham, however unsatisfying the call might have been. -- DJ Bien-Aime, Ryan Clark: Bucs in 'inexcusable position' following loss to Browns (1:12), NFL Power Rankings: Setting realistic rest-of-season expectations for all 32 teams, Huntley hurt as Ravens again lose a starting QB, Steelers' Pickett put in concussion protocol in loss, Jets star DT Williams exits loss with calf injury, Bengals win despite missing Boyd (finger), Higgins, Sources: Saints, coaches, Jordan fined $500K+, Tucker becomes Ravens' career scoring leader, Source: James out for banged-up Bolts vs. Fins, Patrick Mahomes' unreal no-look toss leads to 56-yard touchdown by Jerick McKinnon, NFL Week 14 takeaways: Lions roll, Eagles overpower Giants, Dallas avoids mega upset, Lions first-rounder Jameson Williams scores 41-yard TD on first NFL catch, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes show out; more notable NFL Week 14 arrivals. Our power panel -- a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities -- has evaluated how teams are stacking up through 12 weeks. It is realistic to think the Vikings will have a record of at least 12-5 (or better). It mostly comes down to schedule. That group could include running back Kyren Williams and the group of wide receivers behind the injured Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson II: Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek and Brandon Powell. -- Jordan Raanan, Everything you need this week: Projections-wise, our FPI rankings see a fairly even field, with the Bills at the top with a 7% chance to win Super Bowl LVII, followed closely by the Rams (7%), Packers (6%), Chiefs (6%) and Chargers (6%). Coach Sean McVay said Sunday that the evaluation has "got to occur," and as a result of those injuries, "guys are going to get some opportunities like you've seen each of the last couple weeks." -- Adam Teicher. 3): Although they got a win, the 40-3 version of the Cowboys won't be showing up every week.4. There are two major factors: The short answer is our FPI says yes, they are. We've got a brutally close race for the favorite to be the No. The Raiders' next four games are against teams with a combined record of 18-25 in the Chargers (6-5), Rams (3-8), Patriots (6-5) and Steelers (3-7), before closing out against the 49ers (7-4) and Chiefs (9-2). Per FPI ratings, the Bears have a 14% chance to pick first next April, followed by the Jets (14%), Texans (11%), Jaguars (9%) and Falcons (9%). Our power panel -- a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities -- has evaluated how teams are stacking up through 13 weeks. They won at Minnesota. He ranked 12th in Total QBR last season, and despite leading a postseason run, his QBR was still middle-of-the-road during the playoffs. Add in Seattles struggles to get off the field (Tampa Bay converted 10 of 15 third downs) and you had the recipe for defeat. But they still have to play all three NFC North rivals on the road, and it's tough to project a sweep there even in a down year for the division. ESPN's NFL Football Power Index (FPI) rankings have officially been released ahead of the 2022 NFL season. 1 is No. The atmosphere was indeed excellent in Munich, but were guessing the continued improvement of the Bucs offense played a role in the G.O.A.T.s overall enjoyment of his journey to Deutschland. Realistic expectation: Hanging around the playoff conversation. The Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders won on Sunday, so how close are they to the top 10? He's added nine QB hits, per Pro Football Focus, and grades out as third at his position, according to PFF. John Wolford couldnt get anything going in place of Stafford (concussion protocol), and the Los Angeles defense was unable to produce a game-swinging play to pick things up on the other side of the ball. After the Jacksonville Jaguars took home a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens, where does that leave the Ravens in the rankings? FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. -- Jenna Laine, The Chargers bolstered the roster over the offseason with the intention of making a deep postseason run. -- Tim McManus. That's why Baltimore has a 78.2% chance to win its first division title since 2019. According to their website, this index seeks to predict a team's performance. There's upside there, of course, and perhaps he stars in his first season as a starter. PFT's Week 13 2022 NFL power rankings - ProFootballTalk 1. Even though the AFC North is in a down year, that's the reality they face after starting 4-7. "Rome was not built in a day." The Bengals had a bye week to further savor the long-awaited breakout performance from Joe Mixon, who set a franchise record with five touchdowns (to go along with 211 yards from scrimmage) in a blowout win over the Panthers in Week 9. They have the third-best odds to win it all next season, behind only the Bills and Buccaneers two teams theyll face during the regular season. The Raiders, coming off two straight OT wins, seem to have rediscovered the lucky charm they had in closing last season with four straight wins to get into the playoffs. Despite a frustrating loss to the Bengals, the Titans have a two-game lead over the Colts in the AFC South. Even then, they might need help elsewhere from a loaded AFC. The Panthers announced Monday that Baker Mayfield will return to the starting lineup on Sunday after an MRI revealed Walker suffered a high ankle sprain against the Falcons. The Giants already lost to Seattle but have two games in a three-week stretch against Washington. Its not a stretch to say Pierce is the offense. What they don't have is a history of rising to the occasion. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year didnt fill up the box score on Sunday against the Saints, but he drew plenty of attention and created opportunities for teammates in a 20-10 win. Draft ESPN's FPI never bought in on the Bengals last season, and even with a model reboot in 2022, it still is awfully skeptical of them. The Saints, meanwhile, get the Raiders, Vikings and Eagles in those same slots. The Browns were unable to carry any momentum from their Halloween beatdown of the Bengals to Miami. More:Complete team-by-team FPI ratingsChances to make the playoffs. While a best-case scenario has them winning out to finish with a winning season, a more realistic one has them getting more snaps for players like Trevor Penning, Rashid Shaheed and Alontae Taylor to get them ready for next season. In addition to our updated rankings, we checked in with NFL Nation reporters across the league and asked them what the expectations for the rest of the season are for each team entering December. "People in today's world want instant gratification," Davis added. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1). Dan Hanzus updates his league pecking order, 1 to 32. For example, if we ask the model for the Jets' chances to win the Super Bowl if they start 4-0, the resulting simulations where the Jets do go 4-0 are more likely to be those where their rating is higher than what we expect. The game prediction model considers each of those unit ratings and factors in how frequently an offense passes above or below expectation given a game situation. Week 12 ranking: 2 Realistic expectation: Representing the NFC in Super Bowl LVII. follow. That's all I could say.". Now, let's take a look at the updated rankings. The model also now dynamically updates to reflect the current degree of home-field advantage. Since then, the Jaguars have won a total of eight. Realistic expectation: Not being the lowest-scoring team in franchise history. He is obviously a threat through the air and on the ground, and he's a big reason why the Bills edge the other 31 teams here. Anything less would be considered a disappointment, with the question then becoming whether they can actually win it. The flip side of a lower probability for favorites to win the Super Bowl is that those percentage points have to go somewhere. Both scoring tosses came from Ryan Tannehill, who was far from 100 percent after missing a week with a high ankle sprain, but still able to lead the offense on a pair of touchdown drives with Derrick Henry throttled by a stubborn Denver defense. A frustrating loss, for sure, but the Eagles remain the top team in the NFC with an inside track to the No. 7 No. 2022 Football Power Index ratings and rankings! The final five games are no joke for the Cardinals, who fell to 4-8 on Sunday. That came before signing Von Miller this offseason, which will only help the cause. At the other end of the spectrum, the Cleveland Browns are once again the worst team in the NFL, according to ESPN's FPI. The Bears should put all their efforts toward building for 2023. Ratings and projections update daily. The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. "It comes down to my shoulders and my shoulders only. Get the latest fantasy football rankings at the NFL. Baker Mayfield opened the season as the starter, only to . They have won two of their past three, including an upset of Baltimore this past Sunday, and if they somehow go on a roll -- and that's asking a lot, since they play four playoff contenders -- they could even have a chance to finish 8-9 -- which would mark only the second time in the past 12 seasons that they didn't finish with double-digit losses. ESPN's FPI makes the Bucs just a 43% favorite to win the division, with the Saints fairly close behind at 32%. Bengals. They have scored fewer than 10 points in four games this season. Why? Realistic expectation: Going to the Super Bowl. How low do the 0-2 Bengals go? Realistic expectation: Winning the NFC South. The NFL hasnt had a repeat Super Bowl champion in nearly 20 years -- this Rams team doesnt appear capable of putting that streak in any jeopardy. It might be time to take a step back and reevaluate where this roster is heading into 2023. The Bills blew a three-score lead in the second half by making the type of head-scratching, self-inflicted errors that have suddenly become commonplace. The fact that we're still talking about this speaks to how Atlanta has overachieved this season and put together strong game plans to maximize what the team does well (run the ball, control clock). But what is our Football Power Index? Aaron Rodgers went on The Pat McAfee Show last week to remind the football world -- and perhaps, himself -- he is indeed the reigning back-to-back NFL MVP. TikTok video from Miguelito (@miguelitooooo73): "2022 NFL FPI Rankings#greenscreen". Clyde Edwards-Helaire continued his disappearing act from the offense, playing just four snaps without a touch, while new acquisition Kadarius Toney scored his first NFL touchdown in a promising performance. Jets and vs. Dolphins -- next. While Watt was getting up to speed, Najee Harris looked like a player who was finally getting on track. Despite getting upset by the Jaguars, the Ravens have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. Realistic expectation: Developing Kenny Pickett. But the question down the stretch will be whether his job is safe in 2023. ago. And if it is Lance, the model doesn't see how the 49ers could possibly justify a win total of 10 and be considered one of the better teams in the NFC. Realistic expectation: Finishing 10-7 to snag a wild-card spot. The Giants are sitting sixth in the NFC. It won't be easy, especially with four of the remaining six on the road, but the Jets are 4-1 on the road this season, and defense travels. Tampa Bay ran the ball well -- a rarity for the Bucs this season -- and Tom Brady was hit just once by the Seahawks pass rush. With JaMarr Chase sidelined indefinitely by a hip injury, the Bengals need the dynamic version of Mixon to stick around. Winning one of two would put them into a pretty solid position. P.J. Tennessee's passing game is starting to come alive, but the rushing attack hasn't been the same over the past three weeks. While the passing game remains stuck in cement, Dameon Pierce continues to be the lone beacon of light in the Texans offense. Realistic expectation: Getting a closer look at what they have in Jordan Love. Detroit did something unprecedented in the Dan Campbell era on Sunday -- it won a game outside of Ford Field. Realistic expectation: Focusing on Justin Fields' development. They beat both of last year's Super Bowl teams. -- Brooke Pryor. The Bills might have ended last season with a coin flip and heartbreak, but according to ESPN's Football Power Index, they enter the 2022 NFL season as the best team in football and the Super Bowl favorites. 4 and No. The rise of the Jets can be traced back to a defense that has grown up fast. It's not a shock to see the Bills at the top of the rankings, considering the team's performance last season. All four teams in the division rank between No. But here's the interesting part: Even though it believes they are the division's best team, ESPN's FPI actually doesn't favor the Chiefs to win the AFC West. But for those that actually watched the game and did not just focus on box scores, you realize the Lions . In the past two games against the Commanders and Dolphins, Pierce has totaled 16 yards. Taking a look at the rest of the NFC South's total FPI outlook, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are ranked 5th, the Carolina Panthers are 25th, and the Atlanta Falcons are ranked 29th. Their lowest-scoring team of the 16-game era (post-1978) was in 1992, when they scored 262 points, or 16.38 points per game. Playoff Machine 2): They sometimes made it look harder than it needs to be.3. The veteran was the definition of a "bell-cow back" on Sunday against the Texans and their league-worst rush defense, piling up 152 yards and a touchdown on a career-high 35 carries in a 24-16 win. The Steelers aren't making the playoffs this year. Fields has yet to attempt more than 28 passes or throw for more than 208 yards in a game this season. -- Turron Davenport. And when it comes to Super Bowl chances, the Bills have a 7% chance to win it all, followed by the Rams who also have a 7% chance; decimal places likely separated the two. The outcome of the game against the Lions was disappointing -- make a PAT, Cairo Santos! Green Bay Packers . On paper, the 49ers should have a dominant offense if Jimmy Garoppolo can effectively distribute the ball to his cabal of talented teammates. Josh Allen is the rightful focus of scrutiny after three more turnovers, which included the shocking goal-line fumble that produced Minnesota's go-ahead touchdown in the final minute in regulation, followed by the end-zone interception in overtime that sent the fans in Orchard Park home in a daze. There's a fair counter that the continuity is still there, given Byron Leftwich remains the offensive coordinator, but that's just how the model's rules are set up. September 12, 2022 4:40 pm ET. How far do the Vikings and Jets fall? It certainly helped Ryan that the offensive line played its best game of the year and Jonathan Taylor suddenly looked like his 2021 superstar self again. -- Rob Demovsky. . At 3-8, the Rams' focus can be on figuring out whether some of these players can play a bigger role next season. This is the second consecutive year the Colts have fallen short of their own preseason expectations. In 2022, he made the leap to bona fide Defensive Player of the Year candidate. September 27, 2022 11:34 am ET. The Broncos, with 157 points, are currently the lowest-scoring team since the 2000 Browns. The Titans will be a dangerous team if they can find balance on offense. Their lowest-scoring (non-strike year) team in history scored 196 points; that's 14 points per game in a 14-game AFL season. They come in at No. And even if rankings aren't entirely accurate, they provide a reasonable baseline on the public sentiment surrounding each team entering the 2022 season. The Florida Gators find themselves outside the top 25 in ESPN's Football Power Index rankings, coming in at No. Huge turnovers made the difference, none bigger than Darrick Forrest's fumble recovery after a 50-yard gain by receiver Quez Watkins midway through the fourth quarter. follow. Miami Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 285 yards and three more touchdowns, and Jeff Wilson Jr. had 119 of the team's 195 rushing yards as Miami steamrolled a Cleveland defense that shut down Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 9. ESPN's FPI is down on Justin Fields after a pretty brutal rookie season in which he finished with the worst QBR among qualifying quarterbacks in the league. Realistic expectation: Dameon Pierce getting to 1,000 rushing yards. Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL regular season. With first place in the NFC South still conceivably within reach, Smith is hesitant to turn the season over to third-round rookie Desmond Ridder. One of the few bright spots to the number of injuries the Rams have had this season is that the team is getting an extended look at the depth it has. After a wild week highlighted by a series of improbable comebacks, Dan Hanzus has 30 teams on the move in his updated NFL Power Rankings. Mixon entered the big day as one of the leagues least efficient runners: According to Next Gen Stats, Mixon rushed for 54 yards below expectation through the first eight weeks of the season the third-worst figure of any running back with at least 50 carries. Instead, the Dallas offense went cold, the defense couldn't get the big stop, and Green Bay walked off the visitors in a 31-28 overtime stunner. CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND Wyshynski: Ranking NHL's best lines The fifth-year QB ranks third in our predictive quarterback rating, behind only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers but ahead of Patrick Mahomes. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Davis' public statement of patience is surely appreciated. McCoy wasnt spectacular, but he was steady -- running an efficient offensive attack that produced five scoring drives but fewer than 300 total yards. Check out Dan Hanzus' full league pecking order, 1 to 32. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in the playoffs for his career, throwing three touchdowns and five interceptions. The defense is playing well enough to keep Carolina in games if quarterback Sam Darnold can simply manage the offense without making catastrophic mistakes. The First Read, Week 11: NFC contenders, pretenders; plus, Josh Allen's turnover troubles, Gut-wrenching loss to Vikings raises host of questions about Bills, Jeff Saturday brings passion back to Matt Ryan, Colts in debut as interim coach, 2023 NFL Draft order: Raiders in line for No. Kansas City can put a vise grip on another AFC West title with a win over the second-place Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Los Angeles. So while receiver Deebo Samuel and edge rusher Nick Bosa are superstars, the run defense is strong and Kyle Shanahan is a good coach, it's hard to overcome a relative liability at quarterback. The rematch on Christmas Eve in Dallas should be fun. Pierce has 788 yards rushing so far this season. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, but the Bears edged out the Jets for the honor. Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL regular season. Realistic expectation: A six-game win streak. They have a passing game that has improved. The G-Men operate on a thin margin for error, and Barkley is their queen on the chess board. With five weeks remaining in the regular season, one division owns the top two spots in Dan Hanzus' NFL Power Rankings. And they return stars like Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Trevon Diggs. In terms of average FPI rating of its opponents, no team has a rougher 17-game slate in front of it than the Kansas City. The Bengals' excellent receiving corps and an upgraded offensive line help, but the team's defense is expected to be just OK. This one's going to suck, watching it.". While it might seem like a stretch for a team currently seeded sixth in the AFC standings, the defending conference champions are really finding their form as they enter December. Williams was a steady contributor who flashed star potential in his first three seasons. Yes, the decision has been made to keep the humbled Eagles at No. Defensively, the Cowboys are coming off an impressive season in which they ranked third in efficiency. Jones has yet to throw for more than one touchdown in a game this year and has been unable to eclipse a 90 passer rating in six tries (89.7 is the league-average rate through Week 10). Did Jalen Hurts and Co. just run the Eagles back to the top of the NFL Power Rankings? It's likely that the Commanders will have to go at least 2-3, so splitting with the Giants and winning one other game, especially vs. an NFC opponent for tiebreaker purposes. -- our model forecasts a strong follow-up for the Cowboys. This will not be a fun team to play as the weather turns cold. Justin Herbert had two chances to lead the Chargers on a game-winning drive in the final two minutes against the 49ers on Sunday night, but those possessions ended with a four-and-out and first-play interception. While each team's FPI rating is our best estimate for how strong that team is relative to a league-average opponent, the model recognizes that there are significant error bands around that estimate. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2022 season! 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs and an above-average offensive line, and they led the league in defensive efficiency last season. Five weeks into the 2022 NFL season, Dan Hanzus' Power Rankings experience a grand reshuffling, with 28 of 32 teams on the move. They come in at No. Were not ready to say the Packers are "back," but the defibrillator pads have effectively returned a pulse to the reigning NFC North champs. Securing home-field advantage in the playoffs will be a priority. The Browns are followed by the New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers and Indianapolis Colts in the bottom five. The ESPN FPI indicates how much better or worse that team is predicted to be relative to an average NFL team on a neutral field. Realistic expectation: Making the postseason. -- Jamison Hensley. Our quarterback rating docks QBs who don't play, under the reasonable assumption that one way or another not playing is a bad sign (injury or just not being good enough). The bottom line is the Packers need to see what they have in Love, and playing several weeks in a row will help make that clearer. "It's something that just can't happen. After all, San Francisco paid a steep price to trade up and select Lance at No. Ultimately, our FPI model gives Cincinnati only the third-best chance to win a closely-contested AFC North at 24%, behind Cleveland (35%) and Baltimore (32%). chants for Tua at Hard Rock Stadium don't seem so far-fetched: eight starts, seven wins, 18 touchdown passes, three interceptions, 71 percent completion rate at a staggering 9.1 yards per attempt. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Cincinnati ranks 16th in FPI rating and has the 18th-best. The expectations were higher in Year 2 of the Dan Campbell era. They closed the year looking like the best team in football, and quarterback Josh Allen had one of the greatest games of all time in Buffalo's 47-17 playoff victory over the Patriots. All rights reserved. Dan Hanzus provides the full rundown, 1 through 32, with the 49ers re-entering the top five. The Chargers and Broncos are both slightly more likely to win the division than the Chiefs -- and the Chargers have a better chance to earn the conference's No. rushing offense, pass defense, etc.). This isnt the most exciting football in the league, but the Steelers are just happy to get back to winning. 10 team in the SEC. ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN Rank 3 4 Minnesota Vikings 8-1 Previous rank: No. The Eagles were overdue for a bad game, which is a fair classification of Monday night's 32-21 stumble to the Commanders at the Linc. Skip to main . NFL Power Rankings, Week 3: Eagles fly into top three; Bengals fall out of top 10 Published: Sep 20, 2022 at 09:23 AM Dan Hanzus Around the NFL Writer Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10 Week 9. Find current or past season NFL standings by team. The rating . 1? Does any team have a higher ceiling than the red-hot 49ers? Thus, there are plenty of other teams that could end up better than Buffalo -- and of course, every team still has to manage at least three postseason wins to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, no matter how good they are on paper. Es El Repollo! But the back half of the season can be all about developing the rookie quarterback, who was unceremoniously inserted at halftime of the Week 4 loss to the Jets. The Bucs' offense can't seem to clear the 17-point threshold, and the defense is still struggling to put together complete games. It is our predictive model that includes ratings and projections for every NFL team, from how good they are on defense to what their chances are of winning their division. The Rams are expected to be 7.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, slightly ahead of the Chiefs, Bucs and Cowboys. Rodgers threw three touchdown passes (all to previously scuffling rookie Christian Watson) and got much-needed help from running back Aaron Jones (138 yards) and backup safety Rudy Ford, who made the most of his opportunity with two crucial Dak Prescott interceptions in the first half. The changes won't stop there, considering their apparent needs and the lack of production they are getting from an offensive line that is the NFL's most expensive. Colts were top ten in point differential last year so I can see them being high. Cincinnati ranks fourth in the NFL in points per drive and offensive points per game -- despite the fact that WR Ja'Marr Chase has missed the past four games with a hip injury. -- Lindsey Thiry. But if the Browns can avoid being mathematically eliminated in December, that would constitute a success at this point for a team that remains a long shot to make the postseason. The Cowboys' quarterback has demonstrated a high level of performance in the past -- he finished fourth in QBR in both 2017 and 2019 -- and remains in the prime of his career. Wondering where the 49ers would rank ifJimmy Garoppolowere to return as the starter in 2022? The Broncos, who are last in the league and averaging 14.3 points per game, need to stop their current tumble. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. Horrendous second half," Allen said. Washington's ball-control offense was remarkable, possessing the football for over 40 minutes of game time despite averaging just 4.1 yards per play. The Chiefs, last year's top team going in, were at 19% in the 2021 preseason. It will be shocking if any other team emerges from the NFC South come playoff time. Transactions | Injuries Russell Wilson, Davante Adams, Matt Ryan, Khalil Mack and Chandler Jones are among the top players that left the NFC for the AFC, strengthening the opposing conference particularly the AFC West. In this edition of the Power Rankings, Dan Hanzus has a brand new team in the top five. Bill Belichick's 6-5 team has the following remaining schedule: vs. Buffalo, at Arizona, at Las Vegas, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Miami and at Buffalo. Check out the changes at the very top, bottom and just about everywhere in between. 14 in ESPN's FPI, so the model agrees it's a tight contest. Atlanta is a half-game out of first place in the NFC South and faces one team with a winning record -- Baltimore -- the rest of the season. Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team's season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team's schedule. Realistic expectation: Split their final six games, win the NFC North and host two playoff games. During this offseason, ESPN Analytics executed an overhaul of the model, and a full description of changes and improvements can be found at the bottom. Detroit Lions climb in ESPN's 2022 NFL FPI Rankings. It is a predictive rating. The bigger question is how far the Ravens can advance in the postseason. The Chiefs' three opponents that their division-mates don't face are brutal matchups: Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Cincinnati. Realistic expectation: Finding future contributors on this roster. We're not ready to crown the Chiefs, and -- Game of the Year fireworks aside -- rolling out the red carpet for the Vikings feels overly histrionic for our tastes. Against Carolina, Mixon rushed for 74 yards above expectation. The Commanders also play Cleveland (4-7) -- Washington is 6-1 vs. teams currently under .500. -- Jeff Legwold. Let's start by building a view for every team ranked by betting-market-implied probability , Super Bowl odds , PFF ELO ranking , ESPN FPI ranking , FiveThirtyEight ELO ranking (2021 . In this edition of the NFL Power Rankings, the Giants and Jets soar to new heights, while the Buccaneers and Panthers tumble down the board. Making the right decisions, making the right throws. It doesn't sound like a lofty goal, but that would be the most games the franchise has won in a season since 2019. The Seahawks were cruising toward at least that many when they were riding a four-game win streak, but they've come back down to earth with back-to-back losses, including a disappointing overtime defeat to the Raiders in Week 12. Rank Player Salary ($) NFL Fantasy Experts; 1: Josh Allen QB - BUF--1: 2: Justin Herbert QB - LAC--2: 3: Lamar Jackson QB . Ryan took the opportunity and made the most of it, running the offense like the decorated veteran he is in a 25-20 win over the Raiders. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. 24 -- behind the Giants and Lions -- and carry just a 39% chance at making the playoffs. It's entirely possible to get into the postseason with nine wins in the NFC, but splitting the final six would get the Giants to a healthy 10 wins -- and complete a wildly overachieving season. Realistic expectation: Evaluating young players. To Jacksonville's credit, they kept the game from getting ugly after falling behind Kansas City 20-0 in the second quarter. Picks and predictions for the Army vs. Navy game as the college football schedule turns to Week 15 with updated betting lines and game odds. So grasp onto your scepter tightly, Eagles. It's not the immediate group of favorites, but rather the collection of squads that can win it all if player development, luck and injuries break right for them. But as we saw from Buffalo last season, it doesn't end with Allen. Dallas has a 45% chance to win the NFC East, along with a 16% shot to be the No. 37 nationally and as the No. Last Updated: November 29, 2022 The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL regular season -- we are now two-thirds of the way through. The Colts have already fired their head coach and are expected to conduct a legitimate coaching search when the season ends. Realistic expectation: Finishing above .500. They have the best record in the league at 10-1, an MVP candidate in Jalen Hurts . Philadelphia Eagles. These can be considered baby steps for an offense that remains more pedestrian than expected, but you get the feeling that Brady and the Bucs are starting to find their way as they hit their bye week. And the defense hasn't allowed an opposing team to score more than 20 points in eight weeks. NFL+ gives you the freedom to watch LIVE out-of-market preseason games, LIVE local and primetime regular season and postseason games on your phone or tablet, the best NFL programming on-demand, and MORE! Buffalo Bills. Since offensive-minded Bruce Arians is no longer the team's head coach, the model assumes some regression on that side of the ball. They have a top defense. Dan Hanzus updates his NFL Power Rankings with a brand new team in the No. Instead, preseason ratings are determined through a combination of past team performance, our predictive EPA/play metric for all starting and backup quarterbacks, and a predictive rating for non-QB starters based on an ensemble of several player ratings, including Pro Football Reference's approximate value and our own win rates for offensive and defensive linemen. It's a big jump, fueled by the fact that Garoppolo has posted decent QBRs throughout his career -- which is a lot better than what the model assumes the 49ers will get from Lance in 2022 on average. Our model acknowledges that Lance came in as a strong prospect, but after just 71 pass attempts during his rookie year, it views Lance in the same range as players like Matt Corral, Joe Flacco, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles. Please check your email for a confirmation. Sam Darnold, yet to play a snap this season after his own high ankle sprain led to a lengthy absence, will be the backup against the Ravens. However, the Bolts still have a shot at making the playoffs for the first time since 2018, with their chances improving to 60% following a gutsy decision -- as coach Brandon Staley opted to go for the 2-point conversion rather than kick an extra point and go to overtime in a Week 12 win over the Cardinals. ESPN's FPI rankings were developed in 2013 as a way to measure the overall strength of each . The Panthers are a long shot for sure, but they also were in 2014 when they won the last four games to win the division at 7-8-1. His fourth-quarter pick-six was a reminder that the second-year QB remains a work in progress as a passer, but we've seen significant gains in that department, as well. Don't forget to check out the NFL Power Rankings Podcast with Dan Hanzus and Colleen Wolfe. 2022 NFL Week 13 QB Power Rankings: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes up top; Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones on the rise Assessing every team's starting QB Check out the full pecking order, 1-32. The Pats are about to enter the teeth of their schedule. The Saints mathematically have a shot at the NFC South like everyone else, but they've squandered every opportunity they've gotten to make any progress in the division by beating themselves with poor play. In the latest installment of Dan Hanzus' NFL Power Rankings, the Jets soar into the top 10 while the Packers continue to plummet. Realistic expectation: Evaluate the roster for next season. The Indianapolis Colts are currently ranked eighth in the NFL in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) rankings for the 2022 season. Last Week: 29 Week 13 Result: Bye The quarterback situation for the Carolina Panthers in 2022 has been a merry-go-round of mediocrity. See the latest NFL Standings by Division, Conference and League. August 30, 2022 12:08 pm ET. The Seahawks take a narrow division lead into the bye before a Week 12 matchup against the moribund Raiders. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques. We also upgraded the way the model handles uncertainty within our projection system. But No. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. Still, Mariota cant have too much rope after his recent struggles. When it comes to ESPNs Football Power Index, only two teams rank higher than the Rams: the Bills and Packers. -- Courtney Cronin, Get exclusive access to more than 3,000 premium articles a year from top writers. September 6, 2022 2:48 pm ET. Get the guy some help. We were reminded of that again on Sunday in Pittsburgh, where New Orleans struggled to run the football, make dynamic plays in the passing game or avoid self-inflicted errors in a 20-10 loss to the Steelers. Rittenberg: Predicting bowl scores https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2022/05/18/rams-nfl-rankings-espn-fpi-2022/, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Check out the full league pecking order, 1-32. Jump to a team: Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: All you need to know to win in Week 14, From 'Mr. How much more patience can Arthur Smith have in Marcus Mariota? 9 SEC team on the list. Cincinnati Bengals. pic.twitter.com/9oDRKm8nKR. One key change to point out: The preseason version of FPI has been untethered from betting markets, which previously were heavy drivers of the offseason model. Only one of Carolina's last five opponents has a winning record, and the Panthers already have beaten two of them (Tampa Bay, New Orleans). See where your team stands and strategize your next move for your league. Dallas also has two solid wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, though we're working under the assumption of a healthy Gallup. The offensive line must return to creating holes for Pierce, and the passing attack must take the pressure off him for Pierce to have a chance to hit that milestone. Whether they can knock off a team like the Kansas City Chiefs is a different issue, but realistically, this team has everything it needs to at least be in the big game. They have the best record in the league at 10-1, an MVP candidate in Jalen Hurts and a cold-weather-friendly offense that can suck the life out of you on the ground and rip it up through the air when need be. It's true the Vikings have the seventh-easiest remaining schedule, and that there are only two teams on it with winning records (Jets and Giants). SEA | TB | TEN | WSH. The Vols await their bowl destination. Kansas City Chiefs. The Rams are expected to be 7.7 points better than an average team on a neutral field, slightly ahead of the Chiefs, Bucs and Cowboys. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete. This is less about keeping the order and more about the lack of a new No. Realistic expectation: Winning the AFC's top playoff seed. There won't be many moments this season as unintentionally funny as Taylor Heinicke celebrating Brandon Graham's late-hit penalty in the final minutes like he'd just successfully executed the helicopter dive in Super Bowl XXXII. Problem is, the Bolts never are. What we do know is that the gap has closed dramatically in the NFL's upper class. The Buccaneers are in a firm lead for the best in the division. Our power panel -- a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities -- has evaluated how teams are stacking up through 13 weeks. With Cleveland at 3-6 with matchups against Josh Allen and Tom Brady on tap between now and then, it feels more probable that the Browns' postseason hopes will be kaput before Watson takes his first snap. You have to tip your cap to Doug Pederson: Opening a game at Arrowhead with a successful onside kick is the good stuff. Each team's FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA). There are not many holes on this team. Three challenging opponents, in showdowns that will take place across the span of just 12 days. Dont be surprised if both former first-round picks take snaps in Week 11. Therefore, the Bears' goal of creating a sustainable offense for their future franchise quarterback needs to be the focal point the rest of the way. Ratings and projections update daily. 1 spot -- and that's only the beginning of this week's hierarchical upheaval. If the Bucs reach the postseason, it's hard to see them being more than a one-and-done. -- John Keim. Then again, they just lost to the previously three-win Raiders at home. They get a chance to show how good they can be with a Christmas Eve meeting against the Eagles. Trevor Lawrence elicited praise from Tony Romo on the CBS broadcast and continues to look more comfortable running the offense as the season progresses. They are also the No. FPI; Projections; Efficiencies; Team; Dallas Cowboys. Detroit has not won six games since 2018. Sign up for the Rams Wire newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning. -- Jake Trotter. The future doesnt look any brighter after Cooper Kupp exited the loss in the fourth quarter with a nasty-looking ankle injury. The last five games could help determine that. 1 hr. The final weeks are Pickett's on-the-job training and can establish a baseline for him to build from for his second season. In . "Losing sucks. The defense is opportunistic and leads the league in takeaways (23). -- Michael DiRocco, Simulate your own scenarios and check the latest playoff picture. Week 14 inactives: Who's in and who's out? And this year, they move to the second and third tiers of teams. The turnaround that coach Kliff Kingsbury talked about happening hasn't materialized and likely won't. They would move up to 13th in the FPI rankings. Offensively, our predictive expected points added (EPA) model remains fairly high on Dak Prescott despite a down season in 2021. Add in a defensive front ravaged by injuries, and its a familiar refrain for the Chargers: Imagine if this team were healthy? JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN He has thrown for over 300 yards in six straight games. ESPN's FPI rankings were developed in 2013 as a way to measure the overall strength of each . The drumbeat will begin to grow louder for the return of Jameis Winston, though it's hard to say how much of a difference the quarterback can make behind a beat-up offensive line. Full schedule | Standings --but there continues to be reason for optimism around the Bears in what should be remembered as an important transition season for the franchise. But the mean expectation for Lance can't yet be great. Something the Colts might also have to consider is whether they want to keep Matt Ryan on the roster next season to mentor another QB. Football Power Index rankings It sees strength on both sides of the ball, ranking Dallas fourth in offensive FPI rating and sixth in defensive FPI rating. The Saints are not a very good team right now. Realistic expectation: Winning the AFC South. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine provided a massive lift to Todd Downings scuffling passing attack, hauling in five receptions for 119 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-10 win over the Broncos. The Niners haven't shied away from this being the objective, even going so far as to tell the world they believe they can when they traded for running back Christian McCaffrey. Chiefs (9-2; last week No. When Fields returns from an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, everything should be geared toward helping him develop his skills as a passer and being able to win from the pocket. Keyshawn Johnson breaks down why it would be hard for the Broncos to part ways with Russell Wilson or coach Nathaniel Hackett. Offense, and particularly passing offense, is the most important part of team construction, so in the model's mind, an elite passing team will always beat out an elite rushing, rush defense or pass defense team, all else being equal. Realistic expectation: Winning one, maybe two games. 1 seed in the NFC (second only to the Packers). Mariota wasnt the only no-show for Atlanta, which was outplayed on offense, defense and special teams by a Carolina team that had trailed its opponent 42-0 in the third quarter just four days earlier. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With a defender wrapped around his legs on the play, Dak Prescott couldn't hit his target, leading McCarthy to chuck his headset into the turf -- a fitting display of frustration in this missed opportunity for Big D. "I mean, I think it's disgusting," linebacker Micah Parsons said of the loss. 2 pick; Eagles holding top-five selection via Saints. 2022 NFL Enterprises LLC. Gus Edwards, Kenyan Drake and Justice Hill have all stepped up when called upon. 1 we feel comfortable with. Weve simply seen too much evidence of ineptitude to be surprised when Russell Wilsons final pass sailed over the middle and was tipped into the hands of Titans cornerback Terrance Mitchell to clinch a 17-10 defeat. 2 team. If the Bills can come out on top in those games, there's no reason they couldn't go all the way. Plus, there are quite a few contenders close to Buffalo's talent level. It's fair to wonder if Allen's job could be in danger if New Orleans doesn't get better down the stretch. The heart of the unit is Quinnen Williams, who has anchored the team's relentless front four with All-Pro level play. The veteran quarterback delivered another dud on Thursday Night Football, showing poor accuracy and suspect decision-making in a 25-15 loss to the Panthers. No matter how this season turns out, the Vikings and their fans will always cherish what happened on Sunday in Buffalo. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. These next three weeks will go a long way toward determining just how possible winning it all will be for Buffalo. In short, we upgraded our process to better account for the variance between teams' expected ability and what their actual ability turns out to be. -- Todd Archer. What is the pecking order at the quarter mark of the 2022 season? Said Dennis Allen: "There's just a lot of different areas that we've got to improve on." Copyright 2022 ESPN Internet Ventures. "The guy's coached nine games. NOTE: Up/down arrows below reflect team movement from the Week 10 Power Rankings. The result? Parity remains a king in the NFL, making the Power Rankings an arduous undertaking. That gives a more realistic simulation overall, as well as more realistic projections based on a certain scenario. Check out the full league pecking order, 1-32. How will Patriots' Mac Jones handle Cardinals' blitz on MNF? Fantasy Football Rankings (FantasyPros Experts) Consensus of 5 Experts - Sep 08, 2022. -- Kevin Seifert. How far do the 49ers fall in the wake of Jimmy Garoppolo's season-ending injury? If that continues, he won't hit 1,000 yards. 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