None of the receivers mentioned above are currently among the top 30 in targets. A reminder that all our free stats pages, including DVOA and player position stats, require registration to view. I don't have a "theory" on organizations. The 49ers had better pass defense DVOA in Weeks 2-4 than they had in Week 1! If you go through the logs for Zappe, you see a ton of passing from under center and running from shotgun (in fact, it's almost the opposite pattern- passing primarily from under center, running from shotgun, and lots of play action). Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The Vikings have been the best team in theirdivision11 times since 1980. That's true. It seems to guarantee a super bowl appearance I suppose. Im really energized by it, Yormark said. The Rams and their fans don't need to imagine such scenarios, but any imitators had better. 10 surprising NFL trends: Offense is down, Geno Smith is starring and the 49ers have a problem, 49ers WR Samuel injured, carted off in first half, Mississippi State's Leach hospitalized in Jackson, Silas, 3-time NBA champ and coach, dies at 79, Hot Lions remember doubters, but not satisfied, Navy wins leader Niumatalolo out as head coach, Cowboys look to grow from slim win vs. Texans, Huntley hurt as Ravens again lose a starting QB, Oregon State rewards Smith with $30.6M contract, Terps stop UConn for first ever win over Huskies, Inside the Ukraine national soccer team's heroic fight to carry on, From 'Mr. They would only be an average team in DVOA without that Week 2 bludgeoning of the Colts, but still, Trevor Lawrence has been better this year and the situation around him is better. (There didn't seem to be much this year). The head-to-head losses to both Dallas and Philadelphia are the huge blow there; they need the NFC East to beat up on each other enough to get a full game clear at the top. They should stomp on Chicago's throats from the opening kick. You can hear it, right? They said that about the Manning era Colts until they finally won one. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . 107 comments, Last at 20 Nov 2022, 9:52pm. Let's start with Smith, quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks, our No. From 01.10.2023. I never claim to be. At the moment, there's a 34% chance the NFC South will be won by a team with a losing record, as neither the Buccaneers nor the Falcons are exactly lighting up the league. One of these is much more likely than the other - can you guess which? Yes, really. How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. (Adams, Hill, Kahlil Mack, etc.) Reader Makes Bengals a Postseason Threat; Derrik Klassen. Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. Vikings now have the highest DVOA rank in the NFC North, at 18. A win over Miami may not matter much for tiebreaker purposes or anything, but a big, signature win would do wonders for easing the minds of a fanbase that has had quite enough of being jerked up and down, thank you very much. ", In reply to "You can't be an eternal by Will Allen. You may not realize it, but the defense has seen a bigger drop than the offense compared to last season. Bryan Knowles: Denver Broncos. & Support Mike Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . In reply to Only ranked 18th in the by riri. I'm not talking aboutactualpoints per play as a basis for evaluating teams. The fact that UNC lost to Kansas in the NCAA finals last year will never sully the amazing feeling of the SF win to end Ratface's career. So the Bills have run 42 times and passed 46 times (counting sacks) with a 14-point lead. Without the opponent adjustments, the Eagles would be over 40%. Last year was the "getting over the top" year, ala the early 2000s Bucs, In reply to the weird thing about this conversation is that the Rams weren't by JoelBarlow. Literally every team in the top 10 winning percentage since 2000 has won the Super Bowl over that stretch. However, Danielle Hunter seems to be coming back to his normally super-productive self, and if that happens, well, any team with two excellent edge rushers has a chance to be significantly above average on defense. Then again, it's still mathematically possible for them to be stuck on 8 wins, and lose in week 18, on the last play, and miss the playoffs, like in 2004, when a ref awarded a td on the old force-out rule. If the Vikings end up with two good to excellent edge rushers, it'll be hard to play defense poorly enough to drive their rank down to 23 or lower. Since 1967 (Bud Grant's first season), the Vikings have 9 seasons in which they were more than 1 game below .500 -- so seasons with no realistic playoff chance. We have seen 8-3 teams miss the playoffs before, although that usually requires a quarterback injury (see Lamar Jackson for the 2021 Ravens or Nick Foles for the 2014 Eagles). He unironically gets the same coffee order on a random busy Tuesday. On its own, that's pretty meaningless. Partly because it can't, and mostly because the magic genie isn't real. Editor-in-Chief So repeat success does not imply that you will win a title. It's heartbreaking to go to so many of them and not get a Super Bowl victory. May as well go for the larger reward. Our playoff odds currently give seven teams greater than a 95% chance to make the playoffs, but I'm going to set the Bills and 49ers aside for just one momentwe'll get back to them, and why I'm relatively bearish compared to our numbers. The Patriots may no longer be the monster at the end of the NFL's book, but they're still plenty horrifying for the Jets. DVOA doesn't measure magic, and believing that teams can will themselves better when they want to is wishcasting - because if it wasn't, teams would just do it all the time - because why wouldn't you? Some teams are choosing to go all-in, accepting that they're going to take a step back, a hard crash, or have to rely on rookies. Everyone makes mistakes. Click here for the full table. Kirk Cousins is 51 yards away from 35,000 passing yards. They allowed 7-70 to Zach Ertz last week, 8-179-2 to T.J. Hockenson in Week 4, and 5-87 to Kyle Pitts (his only game with more than 25 receiving yards). Fantasy Football Fantasy Football; we've seen some things worth exploring. 2004 is when the 8-8 Vikings made the playoffs and Moss mooned the crowd at Lambeau). Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Had Tartt held onto the gimme interception that Stafford directly threw to him Rams most likely would not have won the game despite Shanahans playoff history. He was benched for Caleb Hanie near the end of the third quarter after throwing four picks, and the Bears won anyway. The choice of opponent was understandable (weaker team from other conference, so a loss doesn't hurt as much in tie-breakers) but playing the week after playing in London seems a bad idea in general. Unless you believe that the genie will only grant you three wishes, in which case, sure, only use those wishes on high-leverage situations, but again, DVOA doesn't measure the magic genie. Again, you previously criticized someone for "thinking they're the smartest person in the room." Some of my favorite sports memories (NYG home playoff wins, UNC beating Duke in basketball, Southampton beating Liverpool in the League Cup (the three places I've lived, if you're curious)) have come in seasons in which my teams were good but didn't win it all. Looking at other offensive numbers, it's hard to figure out where the drop is coming from. Don't trust the Lions to do something good! They should save the Allen superheroics for when they face the Chiefs. If you were to plot expected utility against number of wins, you'd see basically a flat curve of expected utility with one giant spike to infinity occuring at the very last win. & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . 1 offense according to DVOA. Just like speaking of the GOAT is meaningless. The giants look a lot like the Cardinals, but they have 2 SBs. And I was seeing that at every campus.. Smith's rate of 9.4% is the lowest on record and the only figure for a starting quarterback under 10% in their data set. Who is Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark? We projected the Rams to be in the top 10 on both sides of the ball! Luckily, the Rams have ideal replacements waiting in the wings like um well maybe they can draft oh right. There's too much working against them, and while you can never count Justin Herbert out entirely, I think there are just too many roadblocks in their way. England exit another World Cup with same question: Who's the orchestrator? Raw Numbers: Smith's bad throw percentage, per Pro Football Reference, is an NFL-best 9.4%. Picking an AFC team in this exercise feels like an automatic failure considering the strength of the conference, but I really have no faith in the NFC options on this list. 'Again I'll posit this to NE fans. That is, you take the harmonic mean. The Patriots won that game due to some luck and the fact that there defense was a bit better. Ekeler, Henry Worth Paying For in Week 13 DFS; TCU Horned Frogs Have Silenced the Skeptics; NFL Week 11 - Some big games lead to some big moves up the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings table this week. That's what I remember from 2007 not the great run that preceded it. The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Max 1 purchase per customer/week. Backup quarterbacks are suddenly dominating Big 12 football. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? I mean, IknowNFCCGs are small sample size, obviously. DVOA does support your comment that the AFC is better, however, the NFC is 1 game over .500 and other than Buffalo, KC, LAC and BAL, it seems that there are 3 wild card positions and an AFC South division title up for grabs. In reply to I'd rather never see my team by Romodini. We can separate the truly dead from those who are merely very badly burnt; who's already selling playoff tickets and who is nervously looking over their shoulder. And, according to our odds, there's about carry the three an 8.2% chance of all these teams being the ones who actually make it. Contrary to my usual sense of it being driven by good fortune in the draft, this one is definitely harder to explain that way. Or, like weighted DVOA, you want to gradually drop the strength of games more than a month old. And besides, this is exactly the sort of team to believe in. For this week, if the Commanders win, we give them an 83% chance to make the playoffs and the Giants just a 29% chance. Philly's got 9 in the same stretch of time. The main mistake the Packers committed last week was underestimating their opponent; they should have taken the bye, instead of trying to push it back later in the season and picking the Jets as an opponent. Are the Bears food for a predator or victim to a sociopath? Search for "competitive balance sports NFL" or the equivalent in Google Scholar and it should turn up a fair amount. And why there is a whole discipline of microeconomics and why micro foundations are a thing in econ. They were just doing nothing for the most part. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. Id rather my team be consistently relevant and in the mix than have a one and done title. We'll have to see more games to see if these breakouts are for real. What works when trailing by two scores might not work in higher-leverage situations. Michael Vick and Randall Cunningham likely gained 700-plus yards on scrambles in their scrambliest seasons. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/199211220cin.htm. Not to be pedantic with your alternate timelines, but you meanChicxulub. Jackson Roberts: New England Patriots (-8) over Chicago Bears. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). They should be getting some guys back on offense and I'd expect the defense to return to form. My assumption would be Rodgers doesnt do it much because hes not really a high volume passer, outside of 2011 his most yards is 4,400 and that was the only time he averaged over 300 Y/game. The Cardinals are seventh right now in pass rush win rate, and ESPN Stats & Info charting has them 13th in pressure rate. The Colts are now far, far behind the rest of the league in offensive DVOA. They also rank second against No. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. It's plays per pointin a single game. NFL Week 9 - The Indianapolis Colts have officially ruled out running back Jonathan Taylor in the team's Week 9 game against the New England Patriots, according to a report from the Colts' Twitter account. Or conversely the Steelers winning titles in the '70s has some impact on the Ben roethlisberger Steelers winning titles, In reply to I don't understand how the by theslothook. I don't think he's cooked. In reply to It's starting to look like by KnotMe. Every large organization I've been part of acts the exact same way. In Va. Sometimes its compressed to just half a decade or so. But I don't see the evidence. Bill Belichick and a surprisingly good Patriots defense against a broken Justin Fields feels too easy. Doesn't really matter all that much in hindsight, but at the time 07 and 10 were pretty devastating, because I (and many other Pats fans) came to believe that they would always be really close but never win again, which was kind of torturous. As a 34 year old Titans fan I'd make the same trade in a heartbeat, and probably where some of the Animus comes from. With Barkley rushing so well it's not surprising passing is doing well, considering they barely ever pass. The Patriots did slightly better, at 3.3 net yards per play. Were winning in all the areas that really matter, when you think about the long game. Chargers, Vikings have 5 division titles in 22 years, Titans only have 4. But any future NFL owner/general manager/showrunner who considered dabbling in Win Now tactics in Februaryincluding teams such as the Broncos and Raiders who have already dabbledhas probably come down from the sugar rush by now. It's basically summarized as, "It can't be coaching, it can't be QB, ergo 'dumbass' it's the organization". There are more wild-card spots than decent teams in the NFC. You can throw in the Steelers also if you like, but its easier with the Ravens. Completion rate, sacks and interceptions are also similar. But something being practicallyuntestabledoes not mean false. Personally, I don't think such a thing exists. The solution to the Rams' future cap situation is probably Donald's retirement and some off-the-wall restructuring for Stafford. A Vikings Bills SB would be the first SB to end in a tie, when during the 3rd overtime period a storm comes out of nowhere, knocks out the power so the game stops, then gets evacuated when tornadoes are spotted, and the stadium ends up damaged and becomes unusable. Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. For my part, I can't even bring myself to look back at 09. The likelihood of them maintaining such a ridiculous win rate through the back half of the season is certainly low. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. It may have sounded like I completely dismiss the organizational argument. They have turned over the head coaches and gone in completely different directions. Betfairs Betting Exchange lets you bet against other people and get great odds on thousands of markets every day. But until then! Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. In 94 they had joy until Brazil rearranged their faces. Every year, 97% of teams fail to win the title. I follow the Colorado Buffaloes, who will never be relevant again. I was in a Packers bar when that gem was dug up. Love everything they're doing, the feel, the flavor, the direction., Then we give them 12 great choices to choose from.. In reply to I think Green Bay bounces by mehllageman56, Such a thing in their schedule. You are giving me nothing that can be tested in data with anything you've said. The game-ending pick vs. Minnesota happened on 2nd and 10 in comfortable FG range with Singletary uncovered for at least a 6-8 yard gain just to Allen's right. Not so much about the cost of their points. But plenty of chances could also lead you to a Dan Marino/Jim Kelly/Dan Fouts type of career. I certainly could be wrong. If they can get an early lead and play from ahead, I like their chances. Minnesota is bad enough they could lose out, and then maybe Detroit would win all their games; it could happen! DVOA'srate based. Jackson Roberts: Michael Gallup, WR, DAL. Two weeks of Kirk Cousins takes will then ensue. Butand this is a huge butStafford and Cousins will likely hit the ballot at about the same time. They had scoreless drives that ended at GB's 24, 27, 1, 3, 12 and 32. Hes just getting to know the conference, though hes already made mid-week visits to every campus and hit a bunch of football games. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. KU-TCU last week. They're not consistently relevant, especiallyover the past 20 years. This is a turn the conference never could have made internally; its campus leaders are along for the ride as Brett Yormark tries to give the likes of Kansas a brand and make the Big 12 hip. For the Dolphins, it's all about the damage done during Tua Tagovailoa's concussion; losses to the Bengals and Jets are really bad when you're in a potential wild-card race against the Bengals and Jets. Best Odds Bet In-Play Cash Out. News, fixtures, scores and video. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. That head-to-head sweep will, I think, extend the longest active postseason drought. And probably also with the Steelers. There's every chance that Christmas Eve will decide the bye week battle in the NFC, so get your popcorn ready there. It's nice to be optimistic. Were going to find ourselves in places we havent been before.. and I can't believe anyone on this site still has faith in the Broncos. People are starting to think, Whats going on over there?, Tramel's ScissorTales: Lance Leipold performing miracles with Kansas football. It's full of conjecture on how and why organizations matter. There's getting blown out by a strong opponent one week after an emotional win and there's coming utterly unglued and forgetting how to play football when things are going sideways. Now, Big 12 athletic directors have grown confident the new media contracts are expected to increase from where they were. If you think that bar is too high, then predict how good he will be? 10: Penalty Box (4.83) Win or Lose. They are No. Id rather my team be consistently relevant and in the mix than have a one and done title. Being consistently relevantwill get youa title. If you want a cutoff for consistently relevant, I would do "average playoff seed of 4+". Not sure how much longer this Green Bay skid can last. He still has special moments and can upgrade the players around him. He has caught 17 out of 20 targets for 226 yards and three touchdowns. So I question the idea that Davis coming back will make the run defense good - they're still a patchwork line, and you canalwaysabuse a patchwork line. So I'll define it as top 10 winning percentage over a window of 20 years. OSU-TCU in Fort Worth on Saturday. Javon Hargrave, who is best on passing downs and in a 40-snap role, won't get overused. Indianapolis DAVE rating is now based on a projection with Sam Ehrlinger at quarterback. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. It's all latent and assumed. Did BUF and KC disappear? If they catch another break, and get Keese Cane'im on Sunday, instead of Josh Allen, they can steal another win. Yeah, you're right; the force out td miss playoffs on the last play was 2003. In reply to Allen seems as likely to be by Will Allen. Living people tend to object to it. But wait! I was fully prepared to shed and suck once Rodgers retired. Why conference realignment may force Big 12 schools to make changes to Olympic sports, Lance Leipold performing miracles with Kansas football. I was worried when they brought him back for ~$15M/yr this year that they were tossing money down the drain, and those worries are just coming back. Were going to be on our way to make ourselves younger, hipper, cooler, Yormark said. And Green Bay's not a good example, I think things are changing there rapidly. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 against FBS opponents, 5-0 We were more than ready to write them off sitting at 1-6 at the end of October, but the three-game winning streak they pieced together since then at least means they have shown more signs of life than half their division. They hire similar kinds of people. Really? So a quarter of the time, they're the best team in a 4-team division - meaning there's exactly zero evidence that they're significantly better than random. I try to have respect for people at all times. Vincent Verhei: Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals. From 01.10.2023. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Gotta be the Saints. Starting cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is done for the year with a torn ACL. In reply to Id rather my team be by theslothook. KC was a little over 4 plays per point. The activations on the outside of the stadium, the traffic getting in. A restructured conference office that includes major marketing initiatives. I like Brian Daboll's squad's chances to pull the upset in their first true road game since Week 1 (excluding London). In reply to Well, how many consecutive by theslothook. That's fine. So it's interesting to see which teams have improved or declined dramatically since those first few games. Seattle is 24th or worse in DVOA defending passes against WR1s (24th), WR2s (25th), tight ends (30th), and running backs (31st). They know it., Tramel's ScissorTales: Backup quarterbacks are suddenly dominating Big 12 football. The Vikings have been relevant for 50 years and have zero rings to show for it. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? The Bucs averaged 2.9 yards per play with eight turnovers. 1991 Lions were a 2-seed and topped only the AFC 6 (Jets). You can hopefully see why there's a little more cause for concern for the likes of the Bills and 49ers than there are for the cruising Chiefs or Eagles, no matter what DVOA says. The Rams traded it all for a Super Bowl, so it was worth it. How do we amplify everything these schools are doing and capture it at the conference level, so we can get on the consciousness of these future student-athletes? Yormark said. The Bengals aren't consistent enough for that to be a gimme by any stretch of the imagination, but all losing their hard games really does is take away their margin for error. Let's take an example of the Ravens. Now, you may be thinking that Cousins might deserve Hall of Fame consideration if he indeed leads the Vikings to a Super Bowl win. "Putting trust in Josh McDaniels" was not something on my to-do list this year, but sometimes you gotta live on the wild side. I was really sure 3 weeks ago that they'd lose 4 in row to Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and the Jets. thus it has to be the "organization" without ever venturing a cause and effect about how. The McCown to Nate Poole TD, right? Offensive DVOA is going to be even worse when a quarterback goes on an interception spree or a team fumbles five times. Ive been very impressed, OSU athletic director Chad Weiberg said. I was never so happy as when Minnesota pulled out that week 17 game against Green Bay in 2012, after the refs let McCarthy skate on throwing a challenge flag on a turnover play in the 3rd quarter after the league hammered the Lions earlier in the season for the same thing. Paul Allen is one of my favorite play-by-play guys, and his call of that play is one of the all time classics. That was floating all around the internet on Wednesday, and I have no idea what kind of information that was trying to get across. It sounds like teamseven the Lions, with their awful defensecan clamp down on Fields' scrambling to a degree if they have to. Both the 3-9 Chicago Bears and the 1-9-1 Houston Texans can meet their proverbial makers this week, but until they do, there's still the faintest, slimmest, tiniest sliver of hope. Join Betfair Now Join Betfair Now Im not sure what takeaways there are other than Kurt Warner should not be allowed to pass when up 14, and Brady definitely should. As a semi-Seahawks fan, no you wouldn't. And Im not going to apologize for it.. Once you believe something like that, no data will change anything. Which 2-4 (or worse) team is the best bet to turn things around and make the 2022 playoffs? I guess I can be quite vociferous in my arguments; especially in topics I spend a lot of time thinking about. Really the away game at Dallas is the only game the Eagles look like they could lose all year. This isn't a tiebreaker problem, this is a "can we please stomp somebody?" If the Vikings had a record commiserate with their DVOA. Sir - As a 51 year old Raiders fan, I can tell you that I'd trade say a .300 record for all the years I've got left for a single ring I get to witness. There has been a good amount of parity across the league in 2022, as well as lopsided teams with a good offense and a bad defense (or vice versa). The 49ers are 3-2 with the best defense of the year so far by DVOA. In reply to Excluding ties, there are 16 by Aaron Brooks G. Chicago finished the game with -64.4% offensive DVOA, with 3.9 yards per play and four turnovers. Below are lists of the top 10 contributors to committees that have raised at least $1,000,000 and are primarily formed to support or oppose a state ballot measure or a candidate for state office in the November 2022 general election. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey worked with Bowlsby for more than a year on a four-man committee that developed a College Football Playoff plan, all the while scheming to take OU and Texas from the Big 12. They're second in defensive DVOA and 14th in total DVOA. Remember when he nearly led Washington to a win over Tampa Bay in the playoffs two years ago? Falcons fans here. This by MJK. Denver, at 14th, is the only other team in the upper half of the league in DVOA that's 2-4 or worse, and I like the Jaguars' odds of catching Tennessee and Indianapolis more than I like Denver surpassing Kansas City or finding a spot in the AFC's crowded wild-card field. Obviously. What's the evidence that Fields will grow into Allen/Wilson level passer? I think Green Bay bounces back this week; their pass defense is stout, an opposing team needs to run to put points on the board against them, and the Communists are 29th in offensive rush DVOA. You were successful on a whopping29%of your dropbacks, worst in the league last week. Football fans around the world love to bet on football and see their team prevail, making the taste of the winning bet even sweeter when the full-time whistle blows. If they beat New England, I think that will be enough to ensure Cincinnati's survival, barring some terrible results the rest of the way. Over in the NFC, the Eagles keep on cruising at 10-1, with the Vikings, 49ers, and Buccaneers also sitting on top of their divisions. Kyler Murray can not possibly continue playing this poorly, the NYG hold a playoff position that will be tough to hold, the NFC South is unlikely to get a wild card and my favorite SF is only 3-3 and one injury away to the fragile Jimmy G of losing their spot in the division, the Rams line can not block and Seattle's Geno Mania will run its course quicker than Linsanity did in basketball. You've sort of unwittingly revealed the biggest problem I have with your whole argument. The issue is combining the two teams. But some of those big wins weren't quite so big on the scoreboard. Allen's interceptions have come when opponents have pulled within 14 points. Taylor Heineke is a low-ceiling backup, but at least he knows the system in place, plus hes got a decent arsenal of skill position players at his disposal. Guys like Aikman, Kelly, Moon, and Namath are also below the cut but in. The Patriots have dropped to 25th in offensive DVOA, although their defense and special teams have kept them in the top half of the league overall. Probably topping out in offense and defense. I have to admit that I am a proud slide-rule owner. Russell Wilson, you were out-gunned by Sam Darnold. I'd be curious to see how teams with QBs like vintage Rodgers, Brady, Manning etc behaved when up by 14 points. It would help if you could define consistently relevant. In reply to Oh Will. Points per drive is a useful metric. Russell by Bryan Knowles. Could be, but I am quite sympathetic to the organization being the key. We're trying something new this week, with staff picks from the FO writers. Click here for the full table. In July, he famously said at his first press conference that the Big 12 was open for business, and in the second straight summer of realignment, the press corps ran with the idea that the Big 12 was seeking to expand by pilfering schools from the staggered Pac-12. 2.0 net yards per play is horrible to watch, but will give just a bad DVOA vs the #1 defence. The Chargers offense is already in a good spot against the Seahawks' 22nd-ranked defense, and Keenan Allen is on pace to return. They're just 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot and have only lost one game by more than a field goal. In my 50+ Adult years of watching / being a fan of sports it still stands as the single most painful moment of my sports fandom I recall. Rams-Saints is probably the first matchup in NFL history between a 3-6 team and a 3-7 team with a combined negative-$72 million in effective cap space and zero first-round draft picks in the following year. You mean except for the fact that he detonated as soon as he was without Reid and has had super-toxic media controversy since retiring? The receiver room has been banged up. I think hes bringing a lot of new ideas to our conference that maybe we havent thought about before., New York City mayor Eric Adams recently cracked that Kansas doesnt have a brand.. It's a night game, it's in Foxborough, and the Pats have a chance to get over .500, so the crowd should be into it. Because they won, those series of moves feel vindicated. This is the third game in five weeks that Taylor has missed with an ankle injury. It's not that the scouts sticking around are the key to the whole organization. That's an average of 22 per game. I'll admit, I'm more than a little obsessed with running longshot odds for things that will never, ever happen. I got interesting answers, but one's that were hard to prove in data. The all-time passing lists remain a reliable indicator of longevity and a horrendous indicator of excellence. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Fantasy Football Fantasy Football; we've seen some things worth exploring. It's a cute story to talk about the 49ers, but the Joe Montana 49ers have absolutely to do with the Jimmy 49ers. On the one hand, it's encouraging to see Fields on a list with Allen and Wilson. The Cardinals are 12th against the run but 27th against the pass. If you don't win, every season by definition ends in some kind of disappointment. UK/ROI only. The Cowboys' Noah Brown is another good young receiver, taking advantage of Michael Gallup's absence in the first month to catch 19 passes for 279 yards and a touchdown (ninth in DVOA). For the most part, teams similar to the Seahawks -- hot starts from veteran backups -- have faded away over the rest of the year. Gooo, Candi! The reason being that these things (and I cannot stress this enough)do not exist. Those 87 only occur in alternate timelines where Theia never struck the Earth and the dinosaurs were wiped out when their fusion reactor exploded, because life never had to reset after the Great Splash formed the Moon. And I think the reason why is two fold. Exactly. There is a strong hostage situation vibe coming out of that place. Because organizations have inertia. Exhibitionist & Voyeur 04/04/17: I, Candi Ch. You've had tons of high-end QB and WR movement, which almost never happened before. And an even bigger surprise is that the Falcons are doing this without a big contribution from last year's No. Offense is down, but for some unexpected veteran quarterbacks, offense is actually up. Fortunately, the Seahawks get to watch the Giants and Commanders smash into each other's faces twice in the next three weeks, giving them every opportunity to get back into playoff position as those teams can't both win. And again. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. You might think the Vikings have been consistently relevant over the past 20 years. The Bills just need to focus on securing those blowouts. Good times. College football was all about Kansas last Saturday Kansas! When it comes to QBs (and the film industry), nobody knows anything. DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. 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